These are example parts. Don't enter export-controlled technical data, Controlled Unclassified Information, classified information, or part numbers your company treats as sensitive; use codes such as "Part 101." Everything runs on this device: nothing you enter is sent to Foley Strategic Advisory or anyone else. How your data is handled
Most years cost nothing; a few cost a lot. The average spreads those over many years.
Where the risk sits
Bubble size = average yearly loss. Numbers are ranks in the list below.Top right: a shortfall is both likely and costly. Bottom right: frequent but cheap. Top left: rare but severe; compare its 1-in-100 year with what the business could absorb.
For a bubble's full name and numbers, point at it, or tab to the chart and use the arrow keys.
Show as table
Suggested funding order
Most loss avoided per dollar first. Some parts appear twice: a cheap first step, then a bigger one if the budget allows.Every part, ranked by average yearly loss
Doing nothing versus each part's best fix| # | Part | Supplier | If the supplier closed tomorrow | Chance of a shortfall / yr | Average loss / yr | 1-in-100 year | Best fix | Cash needed in year one | Yearly savings after fix cost | Open |
|---|
Parts with the same supplier name share that supplier's disruptions in every simulated year, so the all-parts 1-in-100 year reflects the concentration.
Your single-source parts
Don't upload or paste Controlled Unclassified Information, export-controlled technical data (International Traffic in Arms Regulations or Export Administration Regulations), federal contract information, classified information, part numbers, drawing numbers or program names. Use codes such as "Part 101" and "Supplier A."
Upload an Excel (.xlsx) or CSV file, drop one here, or paste rows copied from a spreadsheet. The file is read on this device and never uploaded, and the file itself isn't kept. Only the nine columns below are read: any other columns, such as contact names, prices or notes, are ignored. One row per part, a header row optional, columns in this order:
Your list replaces the example parts.
| # | Column | What to enter | Example |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Part name | Any name, or a code such as "Part 101." Don't enter part numbers, drawing numbers or program names. | Titanium forging |
| 2 | Part type | One of: Defense casting or forging; Defense machined part; Defense electronics; Commercial, own tooling; Commercial, new tooling; Commercial board or motor. Words like forging, casting, machined, electronics, board, motor, molded or tooling also work. Anything else is set to Commercial, own tooling and highlighted for you to check. | Defense casting or forging |
| 3 | Yearly spend ($) | Last 12 months of purchases for this part. 1.8M, 1.8MM, 800K, 2 million, $800,000 and 800000 all work. | 1.8M |
| 4 | Revenue that needs it ($) | Yearly sales of the products you can't ship without this part. | 90M |
| 5 | Margin lost (%) | Contribution margin on those sales; gross margin works. 28 or 0.28. | 28 |
| 6 | Weeks of stock | On hand plus confirmed in transit, at today's usage. 0 to 520. "3 months" is converted to weeks. | 10 |
| 7 | Weeks to replace | From losing this supplier to first good parts from a new one, including qualification and customer approval. 1 to 260. "18 months" is converted to weeks. | 78 |
| 8 | Supplier risk | low, typical or high; blank means typical. High if any apply: signs of financial stress, owner retiring or selling, you are under 5% of their sales, a recent quality escape, or a plant in a high-hazard location. Low if they have 100 or more employees and a second qualified plant. | typical |
| 9 | Supplier (optional) | Same name on several rows means one supplier: they are hit by the same disruptions. A code such as "Supplier A" works the same. | Supplier A |
No controlled data. Don't enter Controlled Unclassified Information, export-controlled technical data, federal contract information, classified information, part numbers, drawing numbers or program names. Use codes such as "Part 101" and "Supplier A."
| Part | Supplier | Type | Yearly spend | Revenue that needs it | Margin lost % | Weeks of stock | Weeks to replace | Supplier risk | Remove |
|---|
Spend and revenue accept 1.8M, 1.8MM, 800K or plain numbers. Margin lost: contribution margin is best; gross margin works. Weeks of stock: on hand plus confirmed in transit, at today's usage. Weeks to replace: from losing this supplier to first good parts from a new one, including qualification. Open a part for the 45 settings behind these defaults. Lists of thousands of parts work: paste them in, and the table pages 50 rows at a time.
If it happened tomorrow
One event at most-likely values. No odds involved.Every fix, priced against the risk it removes
Each fix gets its cheapest buffer. Total cost of risk = fix cost + average loss.How bad a year can get
Read across: the chance in any year of losing at least that much.
Show as table
What drives the loss
Average yearly loss by cause of disruption.